Sunday, April 23, 2017

French Presidential Elections 2017


Today, the presidential elections' the first round of voting took place in France. Just for curiosity, I looked at the candidates' biographies in wikipedia, and reviewed the public policies they promised,

There is a female candidate, Marine LePen, a lawyer, chairwoman of French Nationalist Front, with a long political history, a politician who inherited the party from her far rightist father, then fired his father, defended her exit policy from the European Union named Frexit. She wanted immigrants as well as Muslim minorities to be removed from France. She says "Every Friday at noon time, you close the streets of Paris and pray your Friday prayers. It means the invasion of France. The occupation is not done only with tanks, guns, or rifle. You can not insert yourself visible to appear in a Christian country. The immigrants should return to their countries," She further says "I certainly do not cover my head when talking to Muslim leaders".

Marine LePen is married twice, divorced twice, now lives with a third partner now without marriage, She has  three adult age children from her first marriage. He uses social media, also LePen speaks very well on the podium.

The second most important candidate is Emmanuel Macron, born in 1977, 40-year-old, investor banker, then economy minister in Hollande government. He speaks fluent English, he is young dynamic, supports European Union. He promotes more immigrants to come.

He supports reducing global warming, climate change, renewable energies. He pursues European policies. He uses social media very well, he has more than 660 thousand followers on twitter account,

Emmanuel Macron, married to Brigitte Trogneux in 2007. Brigitte was born in 1953, 26 years senior of Emmanuel Macron. Emmanuel Macron was at school at the age of 16 when they met. She was French literature teacher in his high school.  Emmanuel Macron's family objected to this situation with Brigitte Trogneux, who had been married to a banker at that time. She had three children from his banker husband. She had divorced the banker husband and married Emmanuel Macron in 2007,

Donald Trump (70) is married to Melanie (42). Emmanuel Macron (40) marries Brigitte (63). That is their private life. We look at the politics of the country how it is ruled, the rule of law, the continuation of the parliamentary regime, the separation of powers, the smooth and fair elections. Politicians' emotional life is not our business.

Candidates with the first two most votes will meet again on the 7th of May after 2 weeks. Then the agenda will be resolution of double citizenship, the status of immigrants, the continuation or termination of membership of the European Union,

Your writer says the Macron will win at the end of the 7th May in 2nd round elections. Let's us see if our forecast will come true.

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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
This article is written for the "EurasiaReview" news web site.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/haluk-direskeneli/

Ankara, 23 April 2017

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Friday, April 07, 2017

Shale Gas and its impact on Turkish Economy


"Shale Gas" is on the agenda. What is "Shale gas"? Is ShaleGas production as easy as you might think? Is it cheap? Do we have it in our environment? Can we produce? What is the cost of SaleGas production? What happens to the environment in Shale Gas production process?

Shale gas is basically natural gas. Only the thermal calorific value is a bit low. Shale gas production is same as Natural gas production by non-traditional, non-conventional method. The soil structure "thin-bedded, rich in organic matter", is suitable for producing oil and gas is called "Shale".

"Shale Gas" is the method of taking the Natural Gas which is trapped between the deep underground rocks. Shale Oil (Shale Petroleum) are removed by the same methods. ShaleGas and Shale Oil production technology are not new practice. Since 1947 there has been market practice in the United States.

Soon, the US will build large number of LNG terminals and become one of the world's largest gas exporters. Rich Shale Gas sources will change the world gas market prices and balances. Traditional natural gas deposits are found in separate volumes of crude oil or on crude oil reserves. Shale Gas is the volume of natural gas trapped in impervious soil rocks.

"Horizontal Drilling" and "Hydraulic Fracturing" have gained economic value with the development of the Shale gas producing technology.

Existing natural gas reserves produced by traditional methods suffice for the world's needs of about next 60 years. With Shale gas to be produced by non-conventional methods, this period is extended up to 250 years.

China has 1.275 Trillion cubic feet (Tcf), US 862 Tcf visible reserves, it is estimated that Turkey has 15 Tcf Shale Gas reserves.

Horizontal wells used to drill for Shale gas in environmental technologies inevitably affect the nearby wildlife. The fluid used during well excavation and hydraulic cracking consists of 98% of sand and surface water, and the required contribution of 1-2% consists of chemicals that will reduce friction during soil excavation. It is not possible for chemicals to contaminate groundwater if appropriate technologies are used in deep underground hydraulic cracking. Because the depth of sand and chemicals is about 3000 meters below ground, far below the depth of the deepest underground water. Much quantity of fresh water (about 15-20 thousand m3) is needed during the excavation of each well.

We estimate that Shale Gas may be found in Southeast Anatolia and Thrace region in Turkey. There is no visible reserve yet proven. It is necessary to open large number of wells for visible-proven reserve figures. It is not possible to reach a quick result quickly with 1-2 drilling wells, that is not true.

The rapid increase in natural gas prices at international spot markets, the decline in production from existing sources, the natural gas depletion, the reduction of traditional natural gas resources that are easily accessible, and the new developments in Shale gas production technologies have increased the investment appetite for Shale gas.

Crude oil prices were at US $ 55 per barrel in February 2017 at international markets. Ref. IndexMundi, Crude Oil (petroleum), Dated Brent, light blender 38 API fob UK, US Dollars per Barrel

The delivery price of Russian natural gas in February 2017 at Germany border was 6.00 US $ for MMBTU. Ref. IndexMundi. Natural Gas, Russian Natural Gas price in Germany, US Dollars per Million Metric British Thermal Unit

This is the current price at Turkish border as they have not sold it to us under the price they sold to Europe. As long as natural gas is needed, the prices of natural gas will increase.

Let's also say the price of Natural Gas USA Henry Hub. As of February 2017, the price for 1000 Sm3 is USD 136 - or USD 3.50 / MMBTU. Ref. IndexMundi, Natural Gas, Natural Gas terminal spot price at the Henry Hub in Louisiana, US Dollars per Million Metric British Thermal Unit

By the end of 2016, Turkey is 98% dependent on imported natural gas and 92% dependent on imported oil. The most important cause of the current account deficit is the energy shortage, namely imported natural gas and imported coal.

Hydraulic Cracking method for Shale gas was introduced with the legal regulations of the US norms and legislation. US Shale Gas production was 14 Billion Nm3 in 2005 and 241 Billion Nm3 in 2011. In 2010, 15,467 wells were opened in the US. There will be more encouragement in this regard during the presidency of Donald Trump.

For Shale gas production, 3000-3500 meters depth in the well before the rock excavated for the production of Shale gas, then it is necessary 1000-1500 meters of horizontal drilling. During the horizontal drilling, chemical liquid and sand are pressurized, then underground layer cracking is made in 20-30 different points. 40-50 meter underground layer is cracked in each crack, then ShaleGas which is emerging is collected from these cracks into the well.

The sand that is added to the water (or liquid) that keeps the formed cracks open. Shale Gas production wells can be opened at intervals of about 500 meters in between. It is estimated that the approximate USA budget price for each Shale Gas production drilling well is between US $ 200-500 thousand.

We also should consider the environmental risks of Shale Gas production technology. Because of the high pressure liquids used in deep soil drilling, local small earthquakes can occur, which may trigger big ones.

There is also a risk that chemicals may interfere with drinking water when cracks occur at shallow depths. We notice that 25-75% of the water injected into the ground is returned to the surface. Returned dirty water is dangerous which may contaminate domestic use water, and if serious checks are not carried out, return dirty water may cause environmental pollution.

With the US natural gas to add up Shale gas production, it can affect world gas prices, but we do not expect that prices will fall much in short term.

Because in the US, the trend towards gas fired thermal power plants began instead of coal-fired power plants.

The coal-fired power plants are shutting down, more combined cycle power plants are commissioning to use more Shale gas. The Shale gas quantity to export is limited. The average cost per new well to be opened in the US has increased. Now, with the average production cost of ShaleGas is over US $ 7 per MMBTU, new wells do not have the economic features.

Do you have Shale Gas in Turkey? We guess, yes it exists, but we do not know how much yet. We have not yet drilled a significant number of reliable results.

Even if we have reserves, it will take at least 8-10 years to find and exploit it and use it on the market. Significant investments are needed to transport gas in order to reach the market from the production well of ShaleGas. Our ball-park guess is that the Shale gas we produce will reach consumers at a price that is not less than $ 300 per 1000 cubic meters.

We need to set up organizing shipyard zones that will be able to produce off-shore platforms for overseas off-shore searches in places such as search- drilling technologies, improvement of drilling rigs, increase of R&D studies, in shipyards such as in Istanbul Tuzla, İzmir Aliağa, Antalya, Mersin.

During Donald Trump's US presidency, that is to say, over the next 4-8 years, the production of Shale Gas will increase, gas prices will decrease, conversion to combined cycle power plants and more gas consumption are expected. First of all, it will occur in the US and then in other countries with relatively low prices, natural gas will be replace coal.

Coal will be sold more cheaply at international markets. Carbon emissions and water vapor will increase the greenhouse effect. Due to energy policies of President Donald Trump, Renewable energy investments will unfortunately be reduced first in the US, then perhaps all over the world. Global warming will eventually increase. Turkish current account deficit will be even greater if we do not care about.

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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.

Ankara, 07 April 2017

Monday, April 03, 2017

Carmen in Berlin Komische Oper (Georges Bizet, 1875)



We entered the "Komische Oper" in Berlin on Friday night, March 31, 2017 at 19:00. We showed our internet tickets in paper print at the door. We left our coats at lobby. We found our places, we were seated. The audience population consisted mainly of middle-aged people. More reasonably priced back seats were filled with young people. A digital translation service was provided on the small screens behind the seats. You could follow English French Russian and Turkish translations as you wish. Light white wine, beer and other alcoholic beverages were served at the lobby bar.
The opera building was completed in 1896. Opera had repertoire with musical performances of German operettas for many years, initially with a total capacity of 1700 spectators. At the end of World War II, the opera house was bombed and turned into a ruin. Then the house was on the east side of Berlin. It was repaired after the war. There have been many repairs to date. The orchestra venue has been enlarged. Today 1200 spectators can enjoy the music at the city center. It is a pleasant large comfortable space. The other two operas in Berlin are playing classic works.
The original work was in French but was played here in German. There was an occasional English-Spanish dialogue. The staging was very different and new. Intermediate cinema projection images were used. The "Biutiful" movie (Javier Bardem) poster was hanging on the left pan which was uploaded with a special message.
The director (Sebastian Baumgarten) had brought the Opera to the East Berlin location of the 1950s. The soldiers in the original were gone, now we had the male macho staff of the "Santander" supermarket. The rear-end looked like mass housing of the East German era. The hot women who work at the supermarket had come to the scene.
Carmen (Karolina Gumos) had stabbed her opponent other woman. She was seducing the small rank corporal Don Jose (Timothy Richards) in the US army.
In the second stage, the with same background, a nightclub emerged. There were Karl Marx, Lenin show puppets around for demonstration on the third stage. The final stage was at the entrance of the arena where the bullfights were held. At the end there was an unpleasant rape and murder scene. There were four stages and one pause.
There was a flamenco show between the curtains with two guitars and a female dancer. Toreador Escamilyo character was performed by a Turkish opera singer (Kartal Karagedik). We watched the opera delightfully in the spacious, high-ceilinged, comfortable armchairs.
While leaving the Opera house, at the exit gate, we got our little chocolate packets as courtesy. Most of the viewers got on their bicycles and pedaled to their homes. We got to Alexander Platz by T100 bus, then we reached our house by U5 metro. It was a lovely evening.
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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.


This article is written for the "METU Alumni Bulletin" magazine.
http://www.odtumd.org.tr/
Berlin, 2 April 2017



Wednesday, March 08, 2017

M&A 2017 in Turkish Energy Markets


There is a specialization in the markets defined as "Mergers and Acquisitions" (M&A). The founders who set up a company that makes good profits are aging over time. They can not catch up with every job. They are technologically lagging behind in computer age. Deciding on each technical and commercial problem is getting tougher in the fast developing international markets.
If the company is working in a good way, if it is well managed, it makes money, it makes profit, its value rises. But younger generations who are expected to take over the company are sometimes unrelated or uninterested to the core business. They want to make other things.
Foreigner investors may get interested in this valuable company. The company is being evaluated by independent rating agencies. Eventually the company is sold in the end. Former owners take their share, and retire to their corners. Some of them stay professional for a while because they know how the company works. When this transition period is over and new staff members are employed, then their work is over.
Deloitte has the most comprehensive work on domestic company sales. The "Annual Turkish M&A Review 2015" report published in January 2016 explains very important details. The privatizations in the Turkish energy market are evaluated within the context of M&A capital. In January 2017, the 2016 M&A report was released. The total M&A figure has dropped a bit. However these reports tell the history. We will make the first estimates of the future forecasts here. These are just estimates, which can change over time.
In the past few years we have witnessed the hands-on change of ownership of a large number of energy companies in our domestic energy market. For example, in 478 Mwe Trakya Elektrik, first the foreign US company's share is transferred to domestic partners and then the domestic partners sold their majority shares to the Russian investor. In our markets there are other combined cycle thermal power plants for sale in the form of majority share sales on the agenda. There are serious discounts on sales prices. Iskenderun Sugözü 1360 Mwe imported coal power plant majority shares were sold. The new owners decided on hold for the third unit investment.
Expert investors who organize M&A earn good money. During the period we are in, there is a rise in foreign exchange prices and a decrease in company selling prices. The company sales are in incorrect timing to sell, but it good timing to buy.
Local construction group Mesa Holding is sold to Turkven investment fund. Another big group Gama Holding released a press release that they sold their 20% shares to an individual who represents a number of international investment groups as well as sovereign wealth funds. The signatures will be posted shortly.
Company and real estate prices have fallen, there are no buyers, no investors. There was an important company in Istanbul producing a high-capacity domestic size steam boilers, Children wanted to do other jobs, the company sold. Same performance could not continue. Other boiler companies Demirdöküm was sold, Desa sold. It is always a source of sadness for me selling Desa, which was an important boiler factory of İzmir region and a great accumulation of technological experience.
German Steag bought a very experienced domestic engineering company in the Turkish market. An important Istanbul engineering firm is negotiating majority share sales with Traktabel. Local engineering companies are sold to abroad. Old-established large contractors leave the domestic market, they work abroad, they earn more money in their overseas business. Enka Power, Gama Power, Tekfen Engineering have been strengthened by experienced staff, they became group locomotive companies.
On the other hand, the domestic market has been dominated  by medium-sized companies that have close relations with ruling politics. These mid-sized firms do not have the engineering capacity, they depend on the cheap vendors of Far East and to their unreliable power plant designs. Procurement contracts, project execution contracts are very simple. There are almost no guarantees, no sanctions, no penalties. All is going in decisions of Vendors direction.
Some of them pay the North American consulting engineering companies. It is absurd to build a new thermal power plant in Turkey that will use domestic fuel, while buying cheap material and equipment from China with North American engineering company's off-the- shelf contract documents.
People responsible for the project all around the world will most likely write many emails, most will have a conference call over the phone. If there is a disagreement, everyone will take the blame on each other.
The managing job this business is very difficult. However, if you could choose a local consultant company, a local contractor, a domestic assembly team, a local financier, they could handle all these tasks much easier. Everyone could gather around a conference table at any time, in the same city when problems are encountered.
Some investors are planning to buy second hand thermal power plant as their new investments, disassemble there and re-install it here. This decision is more absurd. It does not make sense to buy scrap power plant which ended all its useful life.
In Çayırhan-2, Eskişehir Alpu, Konya Ilgin, Bursa, Trakya local coal firing new thermal power plant project competitive tendering, we understand that the discounted proposal price in domestic coal firing thermal power plant contracts will be the cheapest with less than 6 US cents per kw-hour electricity sales. Winners will surely be trapped by the cheap Chinese thermal power plant contractors. Vendor design is not in the standard international norms. It is impossible to find the correct ESP-FGD designs in the thermal power plants of Far East companies. We read the names of the same companies in each new tender result. The tender is expected to be placed to a nominated group. So the message goes to the markets. Competition conditions for free market were not enough. The market is in this situation and accepted by all parties. In private thermal power stations, we do not operate between 23:00 and 10:00 at night and we do not produce electricity. Since the cost of electricity generation is higher than the market selling price, the generation is stopped due to reason undercode name "commercial victimization". Delaying debt was a special case in the past. Now it's almost like the general situation. Credit card installments were in postponement all the time. How far will this unusual debt deferral go? Company sales have been in the financial banking industry for a long time, now it has started in the pharmaceutical, healthcare, hospital sectors as well. Sale Prices are down, but there is still no appetite for buying at the markets. there are no new Investor arrivals, no fresh money entry. All incoming hot money is coming from unknown resources.
On the other hand, the attractiveness of imported coal-fired power plants is over. The natural gas-fired combined cycle power plants are also not so attractive any more. We can not give names because sales are not over yet, but sales of many plants are on the agenda. The situation of the sun, wind, renewable power plants are better, they can attract more investment. Nowadays we hear those who sell their valuable company, take their money and take it to Miami Florida banks, buy a small 50m2 condo there and set up a new life.
In a narrower scope, we meet with friends who are buying a summer houses at the south coast of Turkey, Datça, Seferihisar, Ayvalık, Antalya with money they get by selling their valuable flats in Istanbul Kadikoy Baghdad Avenue which are in urban gentrification. They sell their homes and leave the big city. This is another procedure of small scale M&A application. Did our age go through the process of reviewing these conditions?
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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
This article is written for the "EurasiaReview" news web site.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/haluk-direskeneli/

Ankara, 09 March 2017

Tuesday, February 14, 2017

General Elections Held in Turkmenistan




We sent a group of pioneering engineers to Turkmenistan Turkmenbashi refinery in 1990s, for site-seeing mission of an upcoming international tender. They boarded on a big transport plane. After a long jerky air travel, they landed to Ashgabat airport. They hired an uncomfortable van, to ride 578 km to Turkmenbashi refinery which was situated on the east coat of Caspian Sea. When they arrived to the refinery, it was lunch time. They were invited to refinery restaurant. They were served with nice delicious fresh fish. They were very pleased. At dinner time, there was vodka on the menu. The same fish dish was in front of them. When it was morning, Breakfast was served with tea and fish again. They had not eaten anything other than fish, three meals a day on that week. Turkmenbashi refinery was on the shores of the Caspian Sea, there was only fish to eat, nothing else.
Then, the refinery expansion tender was held, an experienced Turkish company received the job in 1997. They set up their own construction site. They sent an experienced cook to the construction site, the Turkish cook made wonderful meals for the workers.
The first pioneering engineers which were sent for tender site-seeing, had double deck beds for 12 people in the same sleeping halls. Halls were separated for women and men workers. In the morning at 05:00 AM, everyone was wrapping around towel, rushing to the bathroom.
Men's and women's baths were separate, but the doors of the bathrooms were wide open. Employees were hanging the towel to nearby hangers. There were no curtain, no separation walls between the eastern type toilettes.
Everyone was disposing in the queue in those eastern type toilets without privacy. There were non-curtains on shower cabins. People were taking shower, cleaning themselves, shaving and getting prepared for the working day ahead. There were no shyness for hiding nudity. Engineers, foreman, workers, civil servants had no difference in bathroom cleaning services.
When Turkish contractor company arrived to the refinery site, they set up their own lodging at construction site. They gave the engineers single rooms with independent bathrooms to engineers and management. Workers stayed in the common halls for 6-12 people again, but they had closed toilet, separate comfortable bathroom facilities. In the morning, all had standard Turkish breakfast, with eggs, tea, cheese, and olives. dishes such as dry beans, rice and yogurt were in the menu, as well as other vegetable pot meal.
Turkmenistan has one the world's largest natural gas deposits. Country has 5.2+ million population, situated on the east coast of Caspian sea. Land is mostly hot dry desert, with some cotton agriculture where suitable. They have offshore oil and gas production facilities on the Caspian sea. State provides basic needs of the citizens, free of charge education, health, electricity, water etc. retired professional women, medical doctors, nurses, qualified teachers come to Turkey and even to Europe or other Middle East countries for elderly caring and babysitting services to earn more money to send for their families back at home.
Turkmenistan today is a country with an authoritarian rule. The resources of the entire country are ruled by one person. The share of the 5.2 million population from the common wealth is very minimal.
Turkmenistan has 20+ trillion cubic meters of proven natural gas deposits. Annual gas production is around 60 bcm, where 20 bcm is used in domestic consumption. In the past, neighboring countries Russia and Iran were buying natural gas, but these sales are now stopped. Today Turkmenistan can sell gas only to China which is situated at their east border. Earlier, Turkmen gas was priced 160 US Dollars per 1000m3, now gas export price is reduced to 100 US dollars. Natural gas sales revenues have decreased in time.
Turkmenistan president Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov (56) was reelected President third time in the general elections which was held on 7 February 2017, with over 98% of the eligible vote.
President's period of work was extended from 5-year to 7-year. Moreover the president's 70-year age limit was lifted. He is a dentist. He plays beautiful guitar and electronic organ. There are youtube videos of his concerts in big concert halls for 4000 people all chanting together his pop music compositions.
President has wife and three kids, plus one Russian mistress with one more child. His wife currently lives in London.
Turkmenistan used to export natural gas to Russia and Iran in the past. In the past export gas volume was around 40-50 bcm. Now the export figure is down. State agencies plan to build new gas pipelines to reach Afghanistan and Pakistan. But there is no money, no financing available.
To join Tanap pipeline which plan to transport Azeri gaz to European markets, Turkmenistan should build new undersea pipeline in Caspian sea. That is costly.
In the past, they had constructed splendid buildings at the center of Ashgabat with their surplus budget. There is nothing else at the center of the capital city. There are a few number of decent regular commercial hotels to serve businessmen. International Corruption watchdogs warn wide spread misuse of state funds.
Turkmenistan is in a locked geography in the central Asia, most of the land is hot dry desert. Everyone receives free health, education and social services. Virtually they have every facility, but in reality they have no products, goods and services. There are three meals of fish. When you call in the morning, there is still no proper breakfast. Because there is no proper production, there is really nothing.
There is no opposition for scrutiny for upgrading, no common wisdom. The Country is left to care of one man ruling. Everything is left to the decision of one man. Hence that final decision never reaches to the average person in the street, it does not work at all.

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Haluk Direskeneli, is a graduate of METU Mechanical Engineering department (1973). He worked in public, private enterprises, USA Turkish JV companies (B&W, CSWI, AEP), in fabrication, basic and detail design, marketing, sales and project management of thermal power plants. He is currently working as freelance consultant/ energy analyst with thermal power plants basic/ detail design software expertise for private engineering companies, investors, universities and research institutions. He is a member of ODTÜ Alumni and Chamber of Turkish Mechanical Engineers Energy Working Group.
This article is written for the "EurasiaReview" news web site.
http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/haluk-direskeneli/

Ankara, 15 February 2017
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